ESPN FPI Predicts SEC Week 6

ESPN FPI Updated the analytics and projections to simulate the percentage odds to win for every SEC game in the Week 6 slate. Five of the six games around the league this week feature a conference game.  Only Florida plays a non-conference opponent, in-state rival/little brother UCF.

Here’s how the computers think this week’s games play out.

9 Missouri @ 25 Texas A&M

FPI Prediction: Missouri 51.5%

Auburn @ 5 Georgia

FPI Prediction: Georgia 91.2%

12 Ole Miss @ South Carolina

FPI Prediction: Ole Miss 75.3%

1 Alabama @ Vanderbilt

FPI Prediction: Alabama 92.1%

4 Tennessee @ Arkansas

FPI Prediction: Tennessee 82.0%

UCF @ Florida

FPI Prediction: Florida 51.4%

Perhaps the biggest surprise on the list is the model predicting Missouri as a slight favorite to win in College Station. On paper the Top 10 team being favored makes sense. However, Vegas had Texas A&M as a -3.5 point favorite when sportsbooks released their opening lines on Sunday. The line has since slowly dropped to where it is currently with the Aggies as a -2.5 point favorite, but FPI disagreeing with Vegas is not a trend we’ve seen much this season.

The other surprise is the model suggesting Alabama at Vanderbilt is a comparable matchup to Auburn at Georgia. Sure, it’s two different games, and they are two different teams, but as often as Georgia and Alabama are compared, I did not expect the same level of comparison for Auburn and Vanderbilt against those teams. Ever.