Big Picks Energy: Week 4

By Chris Marler

Last week I decided to give myself a bye week to get rested, back on track, and take a break from losing my money. And your money, of course. Regardless, we are back, and we are locked in for this week’s board. Here are the best bets for Week 4.

Tennessee to Score first vs Oklahoma

Tennessee has scored first in 34 of Josh Heupel’s 42 games as the head coach of the Vols. Tennessee leads the nation in first quarter scoring offense at 22 ppg. Norman will be rocking, and it will be a hostile environment, but the Vols are arguably the best in the country when they’re on script.

Josh Heupel is 42-17-2 against the first-half spread in his coaching career 😳

Tennessee is 2-0 in covering first-half spreads this season 🍊

The Volunteers are -30.5 on the first-half spread vs Kent State today… pic.twitter.com/pOr2V940LF

— SportsBettingDime (@SBD) September 14, 2024

USC to score first & USC -5 vs Michigan

Michigan’s defense may still be decent, but the offense and mood around Ann Arbor has been so sad that they’re already resorting to Orjis in Week 4. Alex Orji may be a spark that this team needs, but it won’t matter this weekend. USC is coming off a bye, and I think Lincoln Riley got fed up with being cyber bullied for brisket and Caleb Williams. USC is much better.

Arkansas Over 13.5 pts first half & Auburn, Arkansas both score in the first quarter

Arkansas is averaging over 20 ppg in the first half this season. This game has all the makings of hitting the over in every single quarter, but I like taking the team total for the Hogs as well as both teams scoring in the first as my main plays for this game. Auburn is Top 15 nationally for first quarter scoring offense at 10.5 ppg.

Side note, while they do average 10.5 ppg in the first quarter, they only average 12 ppg in the entire first half. Might be worth putting some money on Arkansas +1.5 or ML in the first half.

Arkansas scores 7 touchdowns in first 7 possessions (first time in program history) to open the season

Razorbacks Drive Chart pic.twitter.com/CShwBvAVGs

— SEC Mike (@MichaelWBratton) August 30, 2024

South Carolina -16 first half vs Akron

South Carolina should destroy Akron. The Zips are consistently one of the worst teams in America and haven’t had more than two wins in a season since 2018. Since 2018 they’re also 0-9 against P4/P5 opponents losing by an average of 40.2 ppg, and eight of the nine losses were by at least 32 points.

Lastly, they’re averaging just three ppg in the first half this season. Take the Cocks.

Kentucky -20 vs Ohio

Kentucky is ranked last in the SEC in total points, total yards, and passing yards this season. However, this is a Mark Stoops system play and these games are where he thrives. Sure, Stoops may only have 2 career wins vs SEC teams who finish with a winning record. But, my man absolutely feasts on cupcakes.

Since, 2017 Stoops and UK are 13-0 vs non-P4/P5 FBS opponents, and they’ve won 5 of the last 7 by 30 points or more.

Mark Stoops Win Breakdown

Overall Record: 72-64

vs teams above .500
18-52 (25.7%)
Power 5: 12-45
vs teams with 9+ wins: 6-31 (16.2%)
vs teams with 10+ wins: 2-21 (8.7%)

vs teams .500
4-3 (57.1%)
Power 5: 2-3

vs teams below .500
40-9 (81.6%)
Power 5: 26-7

vs FCS
10-0 (100%)

— Tristan Pharis (@TristanUda) November 19, 2023

Baby Pick Energy – AKA Best of the rest and other bets I like 

Florida first half ML

• Mississippi State has trailed at halftime by a combined score of 55-6 in their last two games

Tennessee Over 16.5 first half points

Tennessee -6 vs OU

Dylan Sampson 2+ TDs +190

Ole Miss -10.5 first quarter vs Georgia Southern

Clemson -10.5 first half vs NC State

Oregon St first half ML vs Purdue