HANAGRIFF: For Moore, first up is the Carr conundrum

By Charles Hanagriff

Kellen Moore answered the question complimentarily, but without committing. 

Once, twice for good measure, the new head coach of the New Orleans Saints lauded the talents of quarterback Derek Carr while stopping far short of saying he will remain as the team’s starting quarterback. 

“Derek is a tremendous quarterback in this league,” Moore said. “I’ve had so much respect for him, the journey that he’s been on. He’s a starter in this league. He’s a premier player in this league…and so just like any player on this roster, I just got here a few days ago, and I’m excited to go through this journey with all of them.” 

For a man who has only been a head coach for two days, it was an artful dodge. 

Because Carr isn’t just like any player on the roster. In addition to being the quarterback, he’s the highest paid Saint, and that will play no small part in the decision on whether to retain or release him. 

Moore is now faced with what every rookie coach must deal with the first time they ascend to a head coaching job–big picture. 

As an assistant, coaches are charged with putting the best players they can out on the field.  As a head coach, it’s not that simple. Derek Carr is absolutely the best quarterback that the Saints either have or could reasonably acquire to win games for the team next season. 

But is it what is best for the franchise? 

In less than a month, the Saints must be under the salary cap for the start of the new league year (March 13). Currently, the team is somewhere north of $54 million over that number. 

Compliance with the cap will not be easy. Let’s start with a few rules for the unfamiliar. 

The Saints cannot get rid of Carr’s cap hit simply by cutting or trading him. If the team cuts him before June 1st, his cap hit is just over 50 million. This simply is not a viable option because New Orleans has too many other players that they CAN’T cut without incurring even bigger cap hits. 

That’s right, cutting some of the players on this team will hit the cap harder than keeping them, and it’s something I explain to the “blow it up and start over” crowd every time it comes up. 

For example, if the Saints decided to cut Cam Jordan before June 1, it would cost the team almost $4 million EXTRA against next year’s cap. For Demario Davis that number is $4.7 million. Tyrann Mathieu just under a million. Alvin Kamara would cost them over $15 million to release. 

This is the cost of “kicking the can down the road.” 

Taysom Hill, another older player, would actually save the Saints a little if he were cut or traded (Coach Payton, Mickey Loomis on line two), but only $277,000. 

Outside of Carr, of the players that can be reasonably cut, only Foster Moreau ($2.7mm), Khalen Saunders ($2.5mm), and Cedrick Wilson ($2.4mm) would save them over $2 million against the cap. 

The Saints are pretty much financially prohibited from cutting Carr immediately, and a trade, though unlikely, would still cost them over $40 million against the cap.

So, what can they do? 

Cutting Carr after June 1 means the Saints can spread his cap hit over two years.  This would save New Orleans $30 million against this year’s cap but cost them $21 million against next year’s in “dead money”.  If you’re wondering why the team doesn’t do this with the other aforementioned veterans, the NFL restricts post June 1 cuts to two players. The other spot is reserved for the retiring Ryan Ramczyk. 

So, why not keep Carr, since they have to pay for him anyway? 

Well, there’s that pesky $51 million cap number again. To keep Carr, the Saints would have to restructure his contract, meaning that he would be on their books in some form or fashion into at least 2027. 

Restructure should really be a four-letter word in Saints camp these days. 

Once you get past all that cap jargon, there is the football side to consider. Carr’s numbers are OK, and if he were to start 17 games next season the Saints would most likely win more games than if either Spencer Rattler or Jake Haener were behind center. 

But would New Orleans win anything of significance? Currently, they are tied with the New York Giants and Tennessee Titans for the longest odds to win next year’s Super Bowl (betrivers.com). Frankly, the Saints have hung onto the idea that they are legitimate contenders for too long as it is. 

Acquiring a high-priced free agent quarterback is out of the question (I’m not talking about someone like Sam Darnold, I’m talking about somebody like Daniel Jones).  The Saints’ first pick in the draft, at number nine, is almost certainly not going to be a quarterback. A trade up would mean sacrificing even more draft capital, and the team needs all it can get. 

To get where they eventually want to go, the Saints should probably part ways with Carr after June 1. Restructuring his contract and winning five or six games next year only prolongs the inevitable. Carr will be a starter somewhere in the league next year (both New York teams are looking), and the Saints can sign a low-priced veteran (someone like Mason Rudolph or Jimmy Garoppolo) to pair with the two young signal callers for the 2025 season. If they wanted to take a shot with drafting a quarterback outside the first round, that wouldn’t be the worst idea either. 

It’s the easiest way to get under the cap this year. It’s the easiest way to get under the cap next year. It’s the easiest way to find out if the quarterback of the future is on the roster or not. 

What won’t be easy is getting back to the playoffs if Moore cannot convince Loomis that it is time to rebuild.