HANAGRIFF: Sorting through contenders’ losses

By Charles Hanagriff

Last year’s travesty of a major undefeated team missing the college football playoffs will never be repeated. 

So, take heart, ye eleven remaining unbeatens; win the rest, and nobody can keep you out.  Yes, I’m banking that an undefeated service academy team would jump Boise St. 

That leaves…everybody else.  It is my experience that the committee loves big wins (especially on the road) more than they hate bad losses.  Since there are only two current Top 10 wins by teams with less than two losses (Alabama and Georgia), the rest of the field is left to elucidate their loss. 

Counselors, state your case. 

Georgia 

Loss: at Alabama 41-34 

This one is easy.  A one score loss to a Top 10 team on the road is not that difficult to overcome.  Add in the dazzling play in that game, and Georgia has nothing to worry about.  In fact, if they lose a one score game at Texas, not only would Georgia still be in the playoff if they finish 10-2, they would probably get a home game. 

Alabama 

Loss: at Vanderbilt 40-35 

This one is very hard.  Alabama is fine to host if they finish 11-1, or 11-2 with a loss in the SEC Championship Game, but at 10-2 they are going to have to justify losing to an SEC team that lost to Georgia State. 

Vandy is the toast of college football this week, but it’s hardly a cinch that they will finish above .500.  If they don’t, this could be the second worst loss among the contenders.  More on the worst shortly. 

Tennessee 

Loss: at Arkansas 19-14 

This one sounds worse than it is, and could still improve.  Arkansas is 4-2, lost two games they easily could have won and have four more ranked opponents to prove the Tennessee win was no fluke.  Sure, they could lose all those games, but these Hogs look like a tougher out than that. 

Ole Miss 

Loss: vs Kentucky 20-17 

Like Alabama, Ole Miss probably hosts a home playoff game if they finish with only one loss.  But lose another one, and this game is going to cost them.  Most committees hate home losses to start with, but couple that with Kentucky not having any other good wins, plus the Wildcats awful loss to South Carolina, and it would be a big hit to the Rebels cause. 

Clemson 

Loss: vs Georgia 34-3 in Atlanta 

No problems here.  Even though it was a blowout, this loss will age well. 

Notre Dame 

Loss: vs Nothern Illinois 16-14 

This is the worst loss of the season by a contender by far.  It came at home to what is currently a 3-2 MAC team.  I didn’t think there was much of a chance of a 10-2 Irish team missing the playoff, but this might be the one scenario where it happens.  If Notre Dame were to lose again, it would probably be to an unranked team, as the Irish have no opponents remaining that are currently in the Top 25. 

Worse, Army or Navy, both of whom are undefeated but unranked, could beat the Irish.  It would be a damaging loss, but Notre Dame probably wouldn’t get as much credit as they deserve for a win, as the military schools are perennially underrated. 

LSU 

Loss: vs USC 27-20 in Las Vegas 

This one looks considerably worse now than it did then.  The one saving grace for the Tigers is that the game wasn’t in Baton Rouge. 

USC has lost to Michigan, who appears to be fading, and Minnesota, who already has three losses.  Worse, USC will be an underdog at least three more times. 

Because this was a non-conference game, a second loss wouldn’t necessarily take LSU out of the SECCG in Atlanta.  There, a win makes it automatic, but a loss would drop them to 10-3, and this loss would then be in play. 

“The Hangover” was a very funny movie about a group of men dealing with the consequences of a bad night in Vegas.  Like those guys, LSU hopes it won’t be necessary to explain it. 

Texas A&M 

Loss: vs Notre Dame 23-13  

Provided they do not lose to New Mexico St., the Aggies are probably okay here, even with Notre Dame having a disastrous loss. 

The rest of the schedule is SEC games, and A&M already has three wins in the bank there.  A win over LSU next week would help a lot.  A win over Texas and the Aggies, could probably write their own ticket on the spot, even with a second loss somewhere else. 

Like LSU, because this is a non-conference loss, a 10-3 finish by A&M is possible.  This game would then be on the table. 

Utah 

Loss: vs Arizona 23-10 

Utah has any number of problems, starting with Arizona’s other two wins are New Mexico and Northern Arizona, plus the Wildcats have lost twice. 

Utah has been in the waiting room for quarterback Cam Rising going on two years now. The loss was at home, and the Utes’ November schedule is rough.  This one seems too hard to navigate.