Here is LSU’s not-so-crazy path the the CFP
11/12/2024
By Matt Moscona
BATON ROUGE, La. — For all intents and purposes, LSU lost a shot at the College Football Playoff Saturday night with its lopsided loss to Alabama. There is, however, a path for LSU to still get to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game. Under the new CFP rules, the four highest-ranked conference champions not only earn an automatic bid to the playoff, but also a first round bye.
The Tigers have a steep hill to climb, but this is how it could happen:
- Win your final three games at Florida and at home against Vanderbilt and Oklahoma to finish 6-2 in the SEC
- Alabama loses either at Oklahoma or at home against Auburn, giving the Tide a third SEC loss *
- Georgia beats Tennessee, handing the Vols their second SEC loss
- The loser of Texas at Texas A&M would have a second loss
In this scenario, the winner of Texas-Texas A&M would be the only one-loss team and would advance to the SEC Championship Game. After that, there would be six teams tied at 6-2. The fourth tiebreaker would come into play where the highest cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents among tied teams would select the second participant. As it stands with three weeks to go, LSU would win that tiebreaker by a wide margin:
LSU – .520 (26-24)
Georgia – .437 (21-27)
Texas A&M – .434 (20-26)
Ole Miss – .431 (19-25)
Texas – .400 (20-30)
Missouri – .428 (21-28)
Tennessee – .380 (19-31)
*Alabama’s current opponent winning percentage is identical to LSU (.520) with its SEC opponents carrying a 25-23 record. Oddly, if Arkansas (an LSU opponent) beats Missouri (Alabama opponent), the Tigers wouldn’t even need Alabama to lose to win the tiebreaker over the Tide as well.
Is it time to laugh at all those comments about an expanded playoff devaluing the regular season?
