JACKSON: Despite reports, Saints time to trade Carr likely gone

By Ross Jackson

After having restructured his contract, the New Orleans Saints look to be poised to head into 2025 with Derek Carr as the team’s starting quarterback.

However, with reports that the veteran signal caller and his camp were willing to test the market as the Saints sought adjustments to his contract, the potential for a post-June 1 separation continues to draw curiosity. Here’s what that would look for for New Orleans, and why it would be a shock if the team decided to go that direction.

ESPN’s Todd McShay hypothesized that another NFL club may be disappointed with its quarterback situation following the NFL Draft, thus causing that team to look for alternatives in the trade market. That is an astute and understandable observation as teams will leave no stone unturned when it comes to filling the most important position in football.

However, even if a team that was looking to land a new starting passer identified Carr as a target of interest, the Saints would still have to be willing to part ways. On top of that, Carr has a no-trade clause in his contract, so that situation would have to be equally valuable to him as it is for the team that’s acquiring him.

If we concede that Carr would be willing to do so, that clears a major road block. However, for New Orleans, the biggest road block still remains intact: the restructure of his contract.

Should the Saints choose to trade Carr, they would have to do so after June 1, 2025. There is no way to designate a trade that takes place at an earlier point “post-June 1” the timeline would require the move not to be made until June 2 or beyond. The reason to wait and make the move this late is two-fold.

1. It allows other teams to get through the draft and assess their quarterback position.
2. A trade at that point would allow New Orleans to defer a large portion of the dead money acceleration that would accompany the move.

Instead of New Orleans taking on nearly $80 million of dead cap (the number rose drastically following the restructure) in 2025, the team would take on just over $19 million this year with more than $59 million hitting the books in 2026.

That is a major detriment to the Saints’ endeavors to work themselves out of the salary cap pits they sunk into after the COVID-year cap dip.

If the trade value is right, NFL teams have shown that they are willing to take on a large amount of dead cap in order to part ways with quarterbacks.

Last year the Denver Broncos took on $85 million in dead cap by severing ties with quarterback Russell Wilson. Meanwhile teams like the Atlanta Falcons, Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles have taken on more than $30 million to move on from aging passers. The Saints may not look to follow those leads.

New Orleans would be much better off waiting to part ways with Carr after the 2025 season as a post-June 1 release. That would allow them to take on just $19 million in dead cap in 2026 (which is already accounted for) while the accelerating and larger dead cap hit gets deferred to 2027 in the form of about $40 million. With the Saints currently sitting with over $160 million available in 2027 (with only 28 players currently under contract) and a steadily rising salary cap amount across the league, the numbers would be much more manageable.

That’s not to say that the Saints would never trade Carr ahead of the 2025 season. In the NFL, all things are possible. However, the time to split from the passer in a fiscally responsible manner seems to be long gone with the 2025 restructure complete. If a trade were to happen after the start of June this offseason, it would certainly be a shock. 

If that trade doesn’t happen, which is currently expected to be the case, the team and quarterback could seek a cleaner split ahead of 2026. But therein lies another important question. Is entering the 2025 season eyeing an out between a team and its starting quarterback a hindrance to finding sustainable, even in the short-term, success? If this is truly the final year of the Carr era in New Orleans, finding success while looking ahead could be a tricky landscape to navigate for player and club. It will be interesting to see how both traverse such a precarious environment.