JACKSON: Quantifying the injuries to the Saints offense

By Ross Jackson

Over the last few seasons, the New Orleans Saints have developed the reputation of an oft-injured team. The 2024 campaign has not done much to shift that perception. 

Of the Saints core Week 1 contributors on offense, seven of them have missed a combined total of 33 games this season. That doesn’t include the backups that also suffered from injury.

That alone should be enough to quantify the impact on that side of the ball, but thanks to advanced metrics the evaluation can be taken a step further.

In order to truly comprehend the losses on offense the Saints have both endured and produced without, metrics like Wins Above Replacement and Points Above Replacement can be used.

These advanced analytics give a glimpse at a player’s value to his team compared to the level of player that would replace them.

Focusing on the seven players that missed considerable time after being early-season contributors, it’s clear that New Orleans saw a major drop off with each players’ extended absence.

Quarterback Derek Carr ranks No. 18 in a composite of wins and points above replacement. That ranks him in the top half of the qualifying 44 quarterbacks on the list. The Saints went 0-3 with Carr out of the lineup and while rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler showed flashes and developmental promise, the drop off from Carr to the first-year player was both evident and understandable. 

Even the offense shifted a bit in terms of play calling without Carr. Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has used motion on over 53% of Carr’s dropbacks, but only 40.4% with Rattler and second-year passer Jake Haener combined in Weeks 6 through 8 while Carr was managing injury.

On the season, Carr has used a play action dropback rate of 29.8%. Rattler and Haener have used play action on just 16.7% of their dropbacks. 

Neither rates suggest a dropoff in performance, but they do clearly depict the shift in offense without the starting passer available.

On the offense line, the Saints have been without all three separate interior offensive linemen on some overlapping timelines. Center Erik McCoy was unavailable after a Week 3 groin injury required surgery and sidelined him until his return Week 11. He would then miss the Week 13 loss to the Los Angeles Rams. Right guard Lucas Patrick has been battling injury the majority of the season as well, but he did not miss a game until Week 6. He then suffered another injury which forced him to miss the last three games. Both Patrick and McCoy are expected to make their returns to the field this week.

Ruiz missed four games, Weeks 4-7, but has been back in the lineup ever since. He is currently in concussion protocol, but interim head coach Darren Rizzi highlighted that he’s already progressed through the first few steps to get back to the field.

All three interior offensive lineman rank within the Top 50 of 149 offensive lineman in the composite. Patrick is No. 44, McCoy lands at No. 37 and Ruiz leads the way at No. 27.

Several backup offensive lineman almost missed time behind each of them, compounding the situation further.

Wide receiver Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave rank within the Top 100 of their position group. The qualifying list includes nearly 200 wideouts. Shaheed ranks No. 25. His high ranking makes sense considering he is still the No. 2 wideout on the team in receiving yards (400) through Week 13 despite appearing in just six games this season. His three receiving touchdowns also led the way until last weekend’s game when receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling became the lone leader with four touchdown catches.

Lastly, perhaps the team’s biggest loss of the season, do-it-all tight end Taysom Hill. The veteran weapon ranks the highest of all of his aforementioned teammates as the No. 6 tight end in composite wins and points above replacement. He stands just outside of the Top 5 on a 120+ tight end list.

Considering his litany of contributions on offense alone, the ranking can be considered swollen. However, there’s no denying that each of those contributions, rushing, receiving, passing and blocking are quintessential to the Saints offense. Hill has missed four games this season and will also miss the remainder of the year.

Despite all of these losses and their clear impact, Kubiak has kept pace with or exceeded the success other new offensive coordinators around the league and has certainly proved that he deserves another play calling role in 2025, either with New Orleans or otherwise pending their head coaching search. For all intents and purposes, no one would be shocked if the Saints fielded a much worse offense than they have thanks to these injuries. But they’ve found ways to stoke success here and there.

This weekend’s game against the New York Giants will be a massive test, however. New Orleans will have to prove it can win on offense without Olave, Shaheed or Hill on the field. Expect a big workload for running back Alvin Kamara and perhaps a substantial one for second-year rusher Kendre Miller as well. The second year back could make his return from Injured Reserve in time to make the trip from the Big Easy to the Big Apple.