JACKSON: Two trade back scenarios that make sense for Saints
04/06/2025
By Ross Jackson
This year’s NFL Draft may be one of the more unpredictable ones in recent years. Without a haul on quarterbacks widely considered top-flight, draft experts are all over the map trying to lay out what this year’s selection process results will look like.
While it may be tough to glean much from the crystal ball this year, teams do have certain tendencies that provide at least some semblance of expectation. The New Orleans Saints are one of those teams.
General manager Mickey Loomis is not often fond of trading back. A swapping of draft capital that would end in the team moving out of its spot in exchange for additional picks so that another team could take its place.
This is a move that New Orleans hasn’t made since 2007.
Why Don’t the Saints Trade Back?
Loomis has made it clear that he isn’t definitively against the idea of trading back again someday. However, he isn’t particularly fond of what it means for his team’s draft possibilities.
“If you move back two or three or four spots, probably the level of player is similar,” Loomis said during last year’s pre-draft media availability. “If you’re moving back eight to ten, I think oftentimes you’re dropping down a class. If you believe in your board, you believe in the evaluations that your staff have done, then it’s just hard for me to grasp getting a lesser player talent-wise.”
Thanks to some recent news across the NFL, both such possibilities could end up available to the Saints in this year’s draft.
Loomis said that moving back two to four spots could leave the team with a chance to land a similar talent. Such a scenario could work in the Saints’ favor this year thanks to the retirement of former starting offensive tackle Terron Armstead. Such a loss could leave the Miami Dolphins, Armstead’s most recent team, with a desire to grab a future tackle in this year’s class. Should the Saints go up on the board at No. 9 overall and LSU’s Will Campbell or Missouri’s Armand Membou be available, Loomis might get a call from South Beach.
Possible 2025 Trade Back Scenarios
Looking at similar trades in the past, we can estimate what that return might look like for New Orleans.
The Dolphins hold the No. 13 overall pick, just four selections after the Saints. Back in 2018, the Arizona Cardinals traded from No. 15 to No. 10 to select quarterback Josh Rosen. Here’s what that trade looked like:
2018 Trade Details: Arizona Cardinals moves up with the then-Oakland Raiders
- Cardinals sent: 2018 first-round pick (No. 15), 2018 third-round pick (No. 79) and 2018 fifth-round pick (No. 152)
- Raiders sent: 2018 first-round pick (No. 10)
Between the Dolphins and Saints, that trade in 2025 could look like this:
- Dolphins send: 2025 first-round pick (No. 13), 2025 third-round pick (No. 98) and 2025 fifth-round pick (No. 150 or No. 155)
- Saints send: 2025 first-round pick (No. 9)
Without the quarterback tax the Raiders took with Rosen, the Saints getting a lesser third-rounder (No. 98 instead of No. 79) makes sense.
The question is whether Loomis and the Saints’ scouting team, led by Jeff Ireland, believed moving back four spots would still land them a player in the same tier as at No. 9 — and if the added third- and fifth-round picks are enough to make up for any potential dip in talent. It would be an interesting proposal.
A less enticing option for New Orleans might be trading much further back in the first round in exchange for a 2026 first-round pick—if a quarterback is still available at No. 9.
The Pittsburgh Steelers select at No. 21 overall. If they feel that they wanted to take a swing for a top quarterback like Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders, the organization could look to get aggressive. Doing so may open an opportunity for the Saints should Sanders be available when they are the clock.
A leap from the 20s to a top-10 selection may feel steep, but it’s been done before for a quarterback. It was done in a trade that the Saints may still shudder to think about.
2017 Trade Details: Kansas City Chiefs trade up for quarterback Patrick Mahomes
- Chiefs sent: 2017 first-round pick (No. 27), 2017 third-round pick (No. 91) and 2018 first-round pick
- Buffalo Bills sent: 2017 first-round pick (No. 10)
Leave alone the potential trauma for the Saints missing out on the face of the NFL because of this trade, they did still land the 2017 Defensive Rookie of the Year with the following selection of cornerback Marshon Lattimore. Solace is in simplicity, after all, so we’ll leave it at that.
But this model could be an intriguing one if the Steelers were to come calling in the scenario in which Sanders remains on the board at the Saints’ pick. Of course, it is worth acknowledging that the Saints could scoop up the Colorado passer for themselves. His father and Buffaloes head coach Deion Sanders sure seems to think it’s a possibility. But if New Orleans isn’t sold on the player, a second selection in the 2026 first round could be appealing.
Here’s what that trade could look like, using the Chiefs’ move as a template:
- Steelers send: 2025 first-round pick (No. 21), 2025 third-round pick (No. 83) and a 2026 first-round pick
- Saints send: 2025 first-round pick (No. 9)
The cost-benefit analysis here is all about whether or not positioning themselves with a pair of opening round selections next year, which would allow them the mobility they could desire to get a quarterback in the 2026 NFL Draft, is enticing enough to drop all the way to the early 20s this year.
It’s a tricky balance, since the negotiation isn’t just about this year’s drop—it’s also about the uncertainty of next year’s draft, even with expectations of a stronger quarterback class. No one knows, at this point, which signal callers with college eligibility remaining will or won’t become a part of the class.
That risk alone may make this scenario too tough a pill to swallow. In which case the Saints could reject the premise entirely or, perhaps more astutely, demand more on the return.
It’s been nearly two decades since Loomis and New Orleans have agreed to move back in the draft. The last time they did it though was when a new and bright offensive-minded head coach was in the building.
Although, they did not move back in either of those first rounds in 2006 or 2007. And the trade backs in 2006 were a product of getting a new pick along with a player they acquired in the deal.
So, Would the Saints Trade Back?
It’s a longshot, but there are at least some interesting scenarios available for the Saints to surprise everyone and end a nearly 20-year streak of no trade backs. The price will just have to be as right as ever. A tough ask for those looking to move up.