MOSCONA: Nussmeier one and done as LSU’s starter?

By Matt Moscona

The first week of October is way too early to take a mock draft seriously.

Do we really think Jacksonville won’t win a game this season? A year ago at this time, Maason Smith was in everyone’s projected first round while Jayden Daniels was nowhere to be found.

It’s early and a lot will change.

Still, when Charles McDonald and Nate Tice of Yahoo! Sports put out their Mock Draft 1.0 this week, it was impossible to ignore where the LSU Tigers were slotted.

For starters, Will Campbell was projected No. 1 overall. The last time an offensive tackle was selected with the top overall pick was 2013 when Eric Fisher went to Kansas City. Of course, Campbell is worthy, but that’s a spot typically designated for quarterbacks.

Campbell’s bookend running mate, Emery Jones, was picked 15th and Harold Perkins, Jr., slid into the end of Round 1 at No. 30 despite tearing his ACL last month.

Still, none of those selections are the most shocking part of this exercise. McDonald projected LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier tenth overall to the New York Giants.

Nussmeier has had an incredibly productive start to his redshirt junior season. Through five games, he’s fourth is passing yards, tied for third in passing touchdowns and tied for second in completions. And he’s doing this against defenses that haven’t had to respect the Tigers’ run game. LSU is currently 99th in rushing offense.

Nussmeier has been outstanding. If an NFL team is going to select him in the first round, let alone the top ten, he should and will turn pro. But for LSU’s sake, let’s hope that projection might be a smidge ambitious.

After all, Nussmeier has started only six career games despite being in his fourth collegiate season. There is certainly precedent for selecting inexperienced quarterbacks and betting on their upside. Mitch Trubisky started one season at North Carolina and was selected second overall in 2017. The Colts took Anthony Richardson fourth in 2023 despite starting only 13 games at Florida.

If Nussmeier replicates in SEC play what he has done thus far, he will be undeniable. At this pace, Nussmeier will finish the regular season just shy of 4,000 yards passing and 36 touchdowns. That would be comparable to Jayden Daniels’s passing numbers in his Heisman season (3,812 yards, 40 TDs).

And that’s precisely why LSU should hope he returns in 2025. The allure of a generational talent like Bryce Underwood is intoxicating. But look no further than the current predicament facing Oklahoma. Brent Venables went 6-7 in his first season as head coach before veteran quarterback Dillon Gabriel transferred in and lead the Sooners to a 10-win season. When Gabriel elected to return for a final collegiate season, he skipped town to Oregon as the Sooners decided to go with five-star sophomore Jackson Arnold.

Arnold had a sluggish start to the season and was benched during the Tennessee loss in favor of freshman Michael Hawkins, Jr.

Meanwhile, Gabriel has the Ducks undefeated and is near the top of the Heisman Trophy odds.

We have also seen what a fifth season can do for quarterbacks in Baton Rouge.

Zach Mettenberger threw for only 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 2021. When he returned a season later, he orchestrated an historic offense in 2013 when the Tigers became the first team in SEC history to have a 3,000 yard passer, two 1,000 yard receivers and a 1,000 yard rusher.

In 2018, Joe Burrow went the entire month of October without a touchdown pass. In 2019, he notched the most prolific offensive season in college football history.

Jayden Daniels was a dynamic runner and ball protector in 2022. As a fifth-year senior, he won the Heisman Trophy.

Nussmeier’s individual success will most certainly lead to team success—something everyone wants to see. As for NFL scouts, they might have already seen enough.