PALMER: Predicting the Season Game-by-Game

By Hunt Palmer

A Sunday start for LSU means a few things.

The Tigers get the national spotlight for the opener. Folks didn’t have to take Friday off to get to Vegas a day early for the game. And I get to cheat by watching LSU’s opponents play before I break the season down game-by-game.

Sweeping generalizations are inevitable after 60 minutes of a three month season, but they can be dangerous. Injuries, improvements and individual matchups create the annual chaos that is college football. It impossible to predict.

But I’m going to try.

Early returns suggest Billy Napier may be on a golf course instead of in a film room as Florida preps for LSU in mid-November. Maybe Vanderbilt has a pulse? South Carolina might be awful, and Mike Elko’s A&M defense looks pretty stout.

Any of that can change, but let’s take what we know and try to break this schedule down

September 1, vs. USC (Las Vegas): We’ve talked about this one ad nauseum. I like LSU’s chances running the ball. I’m concerned about LSU covering SC’s weapons. I’m taking the Tigers on a late field goal. 37-35 LSU

September 7, vs Nicholls: This is the fourth consecutive year LSU will open with a power conference foe and return home for an FCS home debut. Nothing of substance can be gained on the field here. It’s either a celebration of a Week 1 triumph or a meaningless blowout in front of a dejected fan base. The tailgating will be great, though. 66-7 LSU

September 14, at South Carolina: The Gamecocks looked horrendous on Saturday. Old Dominion led in the fourth quarter at Williams-Brice. LaNorris Sellers is a fantastic athlete. I don’t think he’s a very good quarterback at this point in his young career. It’ll be a great crowd and environment, but LSU will beat the Gamecocks by two scores. 31-20 LSU

September 21, vs. UCLA: Welcome to the South, Bruins. This is called humidity. UCLA is going to be awful this year. Chip Kelly saw the writing on the wall. He bolted. This offense didn’t score a point in the first half against Hawaii. LSU is going to annihilate the Bruins. No comment from me on the color of their shirts, though. 45-24 LSU

September 28, vs. South Alabama: Kane Wommack left South Alabama to run the defense at Alabama. It shows. The Jaguars gave up 52 to North Texas in the opener. LSU will enter the first bye week unbeaten, and Baton Rouge will be on springs waiting two weeks for the Lane Train to roll in. 56-10 LSU

October 12, vs. Ole Miss: Gameday will have a choice to make for this one. Ohio State at Oregon is the favorite. The SEC’s first Red River Rivalry edition may get votes. Maybe they end up in Baton Rouge for a battle of unbeatens. Ole Miss’s passing game scares me like USC’s does. And the Rebels’ defensive line is better than SC’s. This matchup is bad on paper until I see some improvement in LSU’s secondary. I have this one going the way of Colonel Reb. It’s LSU’s first loss. 41-31 Ole Miss

October 19, at Arkansas: Arkansas shortened the quarters to 10 minutes in the second half on Thursday as they pasted Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 70-0. I hope Sam Pittman and Co. enjoyed that one, because I don’t see many more wins on that schedule. Taylon Green was a pedestrian quarterback at Boise State and isn’t going to translate well to the SEC. The defense doesn’t have the Bumper Poole, Drew Sanders, Dwight McGlothern standouts of the last few years. I like the Tigers to win comfortably in Fayetteville. 38-27 LSU

October 26, at Texas A&M: That monster 2021 class has largely dissipated from College Station. Just a handful remain. But Mike Elko is a good coach. His defense looked strong Saturday night. His offense, led by Colin Klein and Connor Weigman, looks anemic. Some of that may be due to Notre Dame’s stout defense, but it’s concerning if you’re an Aggie. LSU hasn’t won on Kyle Field since 2016. My first version of this column had the Tigers taking a second loss here. No longer. Call it 7-1 headed to the second open date. 28-24 LSU

November 9, vs Alabama: I very much enjoy the fact that Nick Saban lost his last trip to Tiger Stadium. That’s probably petty considering the long list of heartbreaks he inflicted on the LSU football program, but I’ll take what I can get. Kalen DeBoer will get his first taste of LSU-Bama this year, and it should be electric. In this simulation, LSU would be very much in the playoff mix. I can’t wait to see how DeBoer uses Jalen Milroe against someone other than Western Kentucky. Alabama isn’t the fully armored tank we got accustomed to seeing for 15 years, but they still have dudes. I don’t quite trust LSU’s defensive personnel enough to call this a win. Check back with me late Sunday night. Tide by a touchdown. 30-23 Alabama

November 16, at Florida: Saturday was an abysmal showing by Napier’s squad, and he’s not long for that gig. My hand is up. I thought LSU should have given the former UL-L coach a look in 2021. He’s completely flopped in Gainesville. Perhaps by this point of the schedule DJ Lagway is getting more snap at quarterbacks. Either way, the fan base will absolutely check out, and LSU is going to take out some frustrations on the carcass of the Gator program. 40-28 LSU

November 23, Vanderbilt: First of all, go take a lap, Virginia Tech. You can’t lose to Vanderbilt and be taken seriously in the playoff/ACC race. That’s awful. Deigo Pavia is going to iject some life into Vandy as long as his capable. His not the biggest dude, and he runs all over the place. It feels like trying that week after week in the SEC might be a recipe for an injury. Pavia or not, Vanderbilt isn’t winning in Death Valley. 41-17 LSU

November 30, vs. Oklahoma: I can’t wait for this one. We can do it every year if the SEC tells us to. It’ll be a cool Saturday Night in Death Valley with those classic OU uniforms coming out of the southeast tunnel. Playoff implications may be on the line. I have my questions about this roster. I don’t have any questions about Tiger Stadium, and LSU ain’t losing three times at home this year. 38-35 LSU

That’s 10-2 which is right on the good side of Vegas’s 9.5 number. Beating USC and Oklahoma would be real highlights, and I believe that record will be good enough to get into the playoff. It’s feasible to conjure up a scenario where a 10-2 LSU is left out for Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss and Alabama. Still, the ACC looks like a one bid league as of today. We’ll see how the Big 12 shakes out.

The Ole Miss and Alabama games are undoubtedly going to be massive as head-to-head tiebreakers come selection time. We’ll worry about those when they come around.

It’s time to kick things off in the desert. Enjoy the ride.