Statistically Speaking: Saints vs. Rams breakdown

By Ross Jackson

While the New Orleans Saints are riding their two-game win streak under renewed energy and their interim head coach Darren Rizzi, the Los Angeles Rams are also trying to cling to their playoff hopes in the NFC West. Both teams are logically out of the playoff conversation but not yet mathematically eliminated. And both are looking to defy the odds, right the ship and extend their seasons. 

Although both teams are in similar standings in the conference and their respective division/situations. What separates them is what will decide their head-to-head matchup Sunday afternoon. Here is a statistical comparison of both teams and how some of the key metrics could decide Sunday’s game. 

Scoring Offense Vs. Scoring Defense:

Saints Offense – No. 11 | Rams Defense – No. 26

The Saints are coming off of their fifth 24+ point output with their win over the Cleveland Browns before the bye week. Meanwhile, the Rams have allowed 24 or more points in six of their 11 contests. New Orleans has had an up-and-down season, but their scoring total remains high. It’s just outside the Top 10. 

Rams Offense – No. 20 | Saints Defense – No. 20

The Rams offense has not been the high-flying scoring machine we’re accustomed to seeing under head coach Sean McVay. But they can certainly turn that scoring on at a moment’s notice. The explosive potential of the team is very much present with quarterback Matthew Stafford and wide receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. Since both of his wideouts returned in Week 8, Stafford leads the NFL in passing yards and is second in passing touchdowns. The Rams have scored 26 or more points in four games this season, but every other matchup has led to them yielding no more than 20. 

Point Differential:

Saints – +2 (No. 17) | Rams – -43 (No. 24)

Despite the Rams having one more win than the Saints, the point differential is clearly on the side of New Orleans. The Saints margin of victory still remains high, winning their games by an average of 21.5 points per game. Los Angeles has an average margin of victory of just six points per game, not having won a game this season by more than 10 points.

Passing Offense Vs. Passing Defense (Yards):

Saints Offense – No. 17 | Rams Defense – No. 19

This is another area where the Saints and Rams are effectively evenly matched. However, the passing game production by New Orleans took a major hit in the middle of the season with compounded injuries at quarterback, offensive line and wide receiver. Quarterback Derek Carr and receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling have looked like old friends on the field. Over the last two weeks, Carr has thrown just one turnover worthy pass to five big time throws and two of his three best pass ratings on the season, per Pro Football Focus. 

Rams Offense – No. 9 | Saints Defense – No. 30

Since getting both of his receivers back, Stafford has been excellent. However, the points haven’t exactly rolled in for the Rams despite the passing production. New Orleans has surrendered more than its fair share of explosive plays. These are two threatening trends for the Saints defense.

Rushing Offense Vs. Rushing Defense (Yards):

Saints Offense – No. 9 | Rams Defense – No. 28

The Saints perform best when they can control the game on the ground. In three of their four wins this year, New Orleans has run for at least 180 rushing yards. Last week, that total ballooned to 214, led by do-it-all tight end Taysom Hill. Running back Alvin Kamara has seen a revitalization in offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak’s new offense as well. The pairing should be good as any Thanksgiving side tandem of your preference on Sunday.

Rams Offense – No. 26 | Saints Defense – No. 25

Los Angeles had figured something out with its run game in 2023. The iso run, wherein a running back will have the option to choose either a-gap, countering the key defender in the middle. Despite the success the team found with running back Kyren Williams last year, the same has not been true for him nor Blake Corum in 2024. Williams has also fumbled four times in the last four games. 

Turnover Differential:

Saints – +2 (T-No. 12) | Rams – +3 (T-No. 9)

The takeaways have slowed for New Orleans after forcing a flurry to open the season. However, they have found other ways to get the ball back to their offense with blocked field goals and fourth-down stops in the last two weeks. The Saints and Rams have each registered 15 takeaways while the Saints have 13 giveaways to the Rams’ 12. Not a lot separating them on the season. But a separation here in the game could be a major determining factor.

Pressure Rate Allowed Vs. Generated:

Saints Offense – No. 19 | Rams Defense – No. 1

Rams Offense – No. 11 | Saints Defense – No. 27

These two metrics may be the most concerning for New Orleans. The Saints are a team that has allowed a lot of pressure on the season going up against the best team in generating it. Meanwhile New Orleans has been one of the worst teams in bringing pressure going up against a unit that has been effective in keeping its quarterback clean.

The Saints have been more efficient in both of these areas over the last pair of weeks. They’ll need to continue that trajectory in order to not see this game taken away from them at the line of scrimmage. 

One key bout to watch here will be Saints rookie offensive tackle Taliese Fuaga going up against Rams rookie edge rusher Jared Verse. Both have had remarkable inaugural years and are coming off of great performances in their last games. Also, keep an eye on rookie defensive tackle Braden Fiske for the Rams. If the Saints are weak on their interior again due to injury, he can be a very disruptive force that could cause the Saints the same headaches they faced against the Philadelphia Eagles in their Week 3 loss.